All reporting / one chronological file

The intelligence file.

Doom Line

Doom Line. Silver is a ticking bomb. There is no countdown.

The historical record

Trace the decisions, shortages and incentives that keep pressure building.

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Explore the chronological record

  1. 1717Newton’s Guinea
  2. 1764–1766The Colonial Cash Squeeze
  3. 1792The Fifteen-to-One Rule
  4. 1816The Forty-Shilling Ceiling
  5. 1824The Arbitrage Drain
  6. 1834The Sixteen-to-One Reset
  7. 1836Opium for Silver
  8. 1839The Opium Guarantee
  9. 1842The Opium Indemnity
  10. 1848–1851The Gold Supply Shock
  11. 1853Small Change, Limited Tender
  12. 1857The Foreign Silver Cutoff
  13. 1859The Comstock Break
  14. 1862–1869The Greenback Fight
  15. 1867The Gold Proposal
  16. 1871–1873Germany’s Gold Switch
  17. 1872The Claim Machine
  18. 1873The Coinage Act of 1873
  19. 1876The Trade Dollar Cutoff
  20. 1878The Purchase Precedent
  21. 1878 / 1881The Unsettled Ratio
  22. 1873–1878The Five-Franc Lock
  23. 1890The Purchase Machine
  24. 1893India Closes the Silver Door
  25. 1896The Silver Plot
  26. 1896The Cross of Gold
  27. 1896–1897Klondike: Discovery and Rush
  28. 1897The Indemnity Reserve
  29. 1900The Gold-Defined Dollar
  30. 1905Mexico’s Gold Anchor
  31. 1913The Credit Switch
  32. 1915Lawful Money, Hidden Silver
  33. 1915–18Silver Eyes in the Sky
  34. 1918Pittman For War
  35. 1918Silver for War Stamps
  36. 1920The Shortage Warning
  37. 1933The London Silver Bargain
  38. 1933Half for the Treasury
  39. 1934The Bullion Call-In
  40. 1935The Silver Peso Recall
  41. 1935China Breaks with Silver
  42. 1937The Domestic Premium Cut
  43. 1938Money By Law
  44. 1938The Silver Fortress
  45. 1939The Statutory Silver Premium
  46. 1940–1947The Rupee Loses Its Silver
  47. 1941The Lend-Lease Silver Front
  48. 1942The Silver Scandal
  49. 1942Silver Under Orders
  50. 1942The Import Price Ceiling
  51. 1942–43The Treasury Silver Loan
  52. 1945The Silver He Wouldn’t Steal
  53. 1946The Coinage Extraction Act
  54. 1949Beginning of the Complex
  55. 1950Defense Orders Take Priority
  56. 1951-1952Aid Becomes Leverage
  57. 1957Silver Powers Sputnik
  58. 1961Silver Leaves the Reserves
  59. 1964Bullion Instead of Dollars
  60. 1965The Coinage Break
  61. 1967–72Operation Popeye
  62. 1967The Domestic-Use Gate
  63. 1967Public Treasury Sales
  64. 1967–1968Silver Leaves Canadian Change
  65. 1968Coins Become Industrial Bullion
  66. 1968–1969Australia’s Round Fifty Loses Its Silver
  67. 1968The Redemption Deadline
  68. 1968The Stockpile Handoff
  69. 1969Public Coinage Under Pressure
  70. 1970The Pre-Hunt Danger Zone
  71. 1970-1971The Last Circulating Silver
  72. 1972The Silver Battery Ghost
  73. 1979–82The Contested Stockpile Sell-Off
  74. 1979The MX Silver Exception
  75. 1979–1980The Delivery War
  76. 1981Silver Down the Drain
  77. 1982Silver Shortage Warning
  78. 1985–2002From Stockpile to Silver Eagles
  79. c.1987Future Batteries
  80. 1993Government Silver at Yardney
  81. 1993The Stockpile Warning
  82. 1997–98The London Silver Buyer
  83. 2006The ETF Warning
  84. 2011The Margin Ratchet
  85. 2012Silver: A Solar Showstopper
  86. 2013Silver Under Export Control
  87. 2013Low Risk — For Now
  88. 2014The Fix Goes Electronic
  89. 2016Silver in the Scrappile
  90. 2018National Defense Authorization Act
  91. 2020The Spoofing Admission
  92. 2021The Vault Number Was Wrong
  93. 2021The Blanks Bottleneck
  94. 2021Ukraine Names Silver Strategic
  95. 2022The Sonobuoy Silver Shortage
  96. 2023The Manufacturer’s Supply Warning
  97. 2024Solar’s Silver Problem
  98. 2025The Subscription Gate
  99. 2025Silver Declared Critical

1717 / Britain · Newton / Gold valuation / Silver circulation

Newton’s Guinea

He knew why silver went east.
His cut left the price gap open.

Newton knew that Asian prices were drawing silver east. Yet in 1717 he recommended an initial cut of 6 old pence in the guinea’s payment value—a cut that left the wider Asian price gap he described open. On 22 December, George I reduced the guinea’s maximum payment value from 21 shillings and 6 pence to 21 shillings, about 2.3%. Intended to curb silver melting and exports, the valuation became part of Britain’s later development of a gold standard in practice.

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Newton’s Guinea, 1717: Kneller’s preserved 1689 portrait alongside the cut from 21 shillings and 6 pence to 21 shillings, about 2.3%, with full currency units. The analysis states that Newton knew Asian prices drew silver east, but chose an initial cut that left that price gap open. A generic stately British Baroque setting and a modern silver-flow motif from Britain toward Asia form the illustrative backdrop.
Historical portrait, 1689 · Illustrative British setting · Modern analysis

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Selected record The Arbitrage Drain

Open record / 1824

New Brunswick · Monetary arbitrage

Silver leaves commerce

The Arbitrage Drain

The silver did not disappear.
It followed a better price.

Traders carried circulating silver to Boston and New York, exchanged it for Spanish doubloons, and returned to capture the higher value at home.

Reported silver exports and gold returns between New Brunswick, Boston and New York.

Keep the dates distinct. The archive cites a 1960 retrospective account of the 1824 shortage.

Follow the metal

The reported mechanism

Two valuations created an incentive to trade. The diagram describes the account’s mechanism, rather than a verified shipping itinerary.

  1. New Brunswick

    Silver leaves circulation

    Local coins are carried out of the province.

  2. Boston & New York

    Currency is exchanged

    Silver is exchanged for Spanish gold doubloons.

  3. Return to New Brunswick

    A higher value is captured

    The account reports a premium for the returning doubloons.

Doom Line / Archive file

1824 / New Brunswick

The Arbitrage Drain

Silver leaves commerce

Doom Line / The historical record

The Arbitrage Drain

Archive plate / 1824
100%
Full SilverWars archive infographic for The Arbitrage Drain, New Brunswick 1824, including the trade flow, retrospective event attribution and representative coin types.

Use + and − to inspect the plate. Escape returns to the archive.

AWS’s Copper Deal Opens a Data-Center Path for Johnson Camp

AWS’s data centers need copper to carry power through cables, busbars and transformer windings. A two-year agreement opens a route for Nuton copper from Gunnison’s Johnson Camp mine into that equipment, connecting Arizona production with the physical infrastructure behind cloud computing.

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